Sustainable Aviation Fuels – Is the Silver Bullet just made of Tin Foil?

In all the airport expansion plans across the UK, and indeed the world, airports and airlines grandly trumpet that the massive growth in emissions from the extra aircraft movements, that will be cut due to the blending of supposed Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) with current fossil fuels.

SAFs are synthetic fuels produced by processing many forms of substances, from used cooking oil to carpets, and even human waste.  They are also produced from certain plants.  This raises the issue of losing food production agricultural land, or deforestation, in poorer parts of the world, if SAF crops bring a higher return?

They require huge amounts of power/water to produce, and the emissions created by production, are also conveniently ignored by the aviation industry as emissions attributable to them.

Blends of SAF with current fossil fuels are still in low single digit percentages, and emissions savings are minimal. We have stated in previous articles, how the extremely expensive business of producing SAFs, will not be met by airlines, as both they and producers will look for Governments and others to foot the bill.

Reuters have recently produced an extremely enlightening article, on how SAF production is being quietly cut back: –

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AVIATION-SUSTAINABILITY/movadylljpa

So what happens next?

  • Currently there are 15 SAF production facilities planned in Europe.
  • There are 41 large scale e-kerosene projects under development, aiming for a combined production of up to 1.3 million tonnes by 2030.
  • None of these projects have reached Final Investment Decision Stage.
  • Airlines will never fund developments, neither will airports.
  • Investment banks require a return on investments, so will the airlines pay a realistic price for SAF to enable that return to happen?
  • Will airlines lobby Governments around the world, saying how great they are for jobs and economics, and that their taxpayers’ cash should be used to fund their growth? 
  • Remember, the clue is in the title, Sustainable AVIATION Fuels; aviation will use it all, but not expect their shareholders, or passengers, to pay for it.

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